Bitcoin's fragile situation - further long continuation or...



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Bitcoin's fragile situation - further long continuation or...

Hello there, this is our view on XBTUSD , enjoy!

While coronavirus keeps spreading, US are on fire due to riots and most countries are adopting isolationism in an apocalyptic perspective (based on GDP forecasts), the market is running on a speculative bubble which completely inverted the trend since March 11th and the following week. The only asset which hasn't performed this bad ever since is US$, probably because of the trillions FED printed recently. But that is not our point: to be honest I'd like to commend Bitcoin's volatility and hype, that was awesome. It is the best performing asset year-to-date and since March 11th. And, if you haven't had enough, Bloomberg analyst called it: price is rising upto 20k-28k by the end of 2020.

But let me just get back to reality, because if something seems to good to be true, it's, in fact, false.

Here is a fast check on relevant technical analysis related things, can we? Price is still running far over the trendline coming from March lows, which states a major uptrend with only minor local inversions. No resistance could stop it, neither dynamic pitchfan, which made it to block the run and gave buy opportunities on the way up. A small cup and handle is forming but I'm not sure it will be broken out and work properly. The recently long shadows were caused by a strong manipulation, somehow has something to do with Coinbase shutdown and Bitmex's liquidation engine. Many simple as well as exponential moving averages golden crosses are pending. Weighted moving average 21 is now playing as a small support for the price. We've just recovered bollinger mid band on h4, which looks to be bullish as buyers have come in in recent candles. Ichimoku bullish both on daily and h4, where has formed a golden cross. Many oscillators ( money flow , chaikin, fisher transform , relative strength index , stochastic and ultimate) formed bearish crosses coming down from overbought zones, which is extremely bearish . Even pure momentum oscillators like awesome and moving average convergence divergence met some difficulties recently even if price went up; minor weakness which could be the first sign of a reversal.

After all it isn't that bearish , but open your window and look by yourself the hell is out there and think about how many people (hotels and restaurants, just to take two examples) will starve because of all this stuff? When people are hungry while a crisis is setting, then they come fear and violence.
Our point of view is a little catastrophic for the whole market, by now make sure you're following the trend with your trades and trend, I assure, is bullish . So here's the strategy:
1. SCALP - if handle is broken out:
Entry (long): on retest, may be around 9900
Target (short-term): 10350 - 10530 - 10970
Stoploss: 9410 (-5%)
Risk/reward: 2.16
Tip: take it with extremely low leverage.

2. pushes sideways for the whole next week and then dumps like a shitcoin - if makes it to close h4 below uptrend:
Entry (short): 9790 - 10300
Target (mid-term): 9170 - 8600 - 6780 - 5720
Stoploss: daily close above 10970 (-9%)
Risk/reward: 3.31

Disclaimer: this could be a way to get to the end of the month, but this is not a trading advice as it could seem like, we're just enjoying ourselves and spending our time onto this activity. Don't ever trade money you can't afford to lose. Don't do such a trade if you're not self-conscious about what you're doing; please do your own research before investing money. If cryptocurrencies are not regulated in your country use them only for speculative interests until they'll be. Feel free to ask us every question you have.

Trade safe and chill out. Anlvis
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